October Surprise?

Will the Mark Foley allegations and resignation be the "October surprise" for this election cycle and give the democrats a landslide victory next month? There are plenty pundits who think so. See this link, this one, and here's another one. One newspaper has called for the speaker of the house of representatives, Dennis Hastert, to resign. President Bush says he is "dismayed and shocked" and wants a thorough investigation.

Here's the deal as I see it. There is no doubt that what Mark Foley is accused of is despicable and he should be investigated and punished. But I don't think this is the "October surprise." It is much too early. The mid-term election is still weeks away. This will be old news and off the front pages by the end of this week. Sure the democrats will put this in their playbook and try to keep it in front of the public for the next several weeks, but interest will wane. The republicans will do all they can to move this story to the back page of the papers and move the terrorism discussion to the headlines again. But there is still something out there that may have an impact on the mid-term elections and we won't hear about it for at least three weeks. That's my prediction anyway.

Jerome