Mid-Term Elections Tomorrow
Important mid-term elections are tomorrow. Traditionally, the mid-term elections that take place during the 6th year of a two-term presidency are bad for the party in power. Many pundits anticipate the same thing happening this year. Most are of the opinion that the republicans will at least loose the house of representatives and many believe that the senate will switch control as well.
In recent days there seems to be some trending in favor of the republicans in the polling data. The statement from John Kerry that many have interpreted to be derogatory of those in uniform seems to have been a catalyst that has helped republicans. The conviction yesterday of Saddam Hussein has been another.
The Mason Dixon poll shows Bob Corker with a 12 point lead over the democratic candidate for the senate seat from Tennessee. Polls are hard to figure out but if that poll is even close to being accurate then Bob Corker should coast to victory. Other polls have the race closer but all show Bob Corker leading.
The Gallup poll has the Corker race within 3 points but here is a comparison of the accuracy of the Gallup poll versus the Mason Dixon poll from the 2004 presidential election. (scroll down some to see the comparison). At least this one analysis indicates that the Mason Dixon poll is a more accurate prediction than the Gallup poll. Personally, I hope Mason Dixon is closer to accurate than Gallup.
Early voting where I live ended last Thursday. Although the votes won't be tallied until tomorrow night, we did have 25% of the registered voters in the county vote during the early period. Of those, a higher percentage of voters from the traditionally republican parts of the county voted early than did those from the traditionally democratic areas of the county. We'll see if that means anything or not and whether that is a statewide or nationwide trend.
I think one thing we learned from the 2004 presidential election is that typically conservatives (and conservative Christians) don't participate in pre-election polls or exit polls in as large a percentage as more moderate or liberal voters do. That played out with early exit polls indicating a huge win for John Kerry when in fact President Bush won.
I mentioned early in October that the Mark Foley scandal would not help democrats much because it occurred too long before the elections. I think my prediction held true and in fact, the republican candidate (whose name isn't even on the ballot) in the race to replace Mark Foley as a chance of winning as does the republican candidate for Tom Foley's seat. Both still extremely long shots for the GOP though.
I also mentioned that I thought last Thursday would be the day that if anything was going to break that would change the outcome of the elections then it would happen that day. I didn't really see anything. Perhaps there were things in local races but nothing of note nationwide. The John Kerry statement and the Saddam Hussein conviction appear to be the two big news stories over the last several days that might have an impact.
The bottom line is that everyone needs to get out and vote. In the last two years of President Bush's administration, he needs to be able to nominate and have confirmed more conservative judges to the federal bench. As proof, on Wednesday of this week the Supreme Court will hear arguments on the constitutionality of Partial Birth Abortion Act of 2003. Would Justice Roberts or Justice Alito be on the Supreme Court if democrats were in control of the senate when their nominations came up? I think the answer to that question is an obvious "no".
Jerome
In recent days there seems to be some trending in favor of the republicans in the polling data. The statement from John Kerry that many have interpreted to be derogatory of those in uniform seems to have been a catalyst that has helped republicans. The conviction yesterday of Saddam Hussein has been another.
The Mason Dixon poll shows Bob Corker with a 12 point lead over the democratic candidate for the senate seat from Tennessee. Polls are hard to figure out but if that poll is even close to being accurate then Bob Corker should coast to victory. Other polls have the race closer but all show Bob Corker leading.
The Gallup poll has the Corker race within 3 points but here is a comparison of the accuracy of the Gallup poll versus the Mason Dixon poll from the 2004 presidential election. (scroll down some to see the comparison). At least this one analysis indicates that the Mason Dixon poll is a more accurate prediction than the Gallup poll. Personally, I hope Mason Dixon is closer to accurate than Gallup.
Early voting where I live ended last Thursday. Although the votes won't be tallied until tomorrow night, we did have 25% of the registered voters in the county vote during the early period. Of those, a higher percentage of voters from the traditionally republican parts of the county voted early than did those from the traditionally democratic areas of the county. We'll see if that means anything or not and whether that is a statewide or nationwide trend.
I think one thing we learned from the 2004 presidential election is that typically conservatives (and conservative Christians) don't participate in pre-election polls or exit polls in as large a percentage as more moderate or liberal voters do. That played out with early exit polls indicating a huge win for John Kerry when in fact President Bush won.
I mentioned early in October that the Mark Foley scandal would not help democrats much because it occurred too long before the elections. I think my prediction held true and in fact, the republican candidate (whose name isn't even on the ballot) in the race to replace Mark Foley as a chance of winning as does the republican candidate for Tom Foley's seat. Both still extremely long shots for the GOP though.
I also mentioned that I thought last Thursday would be the day that if anything was going to break that would change the outcome of the elections then it would happen that day. I didn't really see anything. Perhaps there were things in local races but nothing of note nationwide. The John Kerry statement and the Saddam Hussein conviction appear to be the two big news stories over the last several days that might have an impact.
The bottom line is that everyone needs to get out and vote. In the last two years of President Bush's administration, he needs to be able to nominate and have confirmed more conservative judges to the federal bench. As proof, on Wednesday of this week the Supreme Court will hear arguments on the constitutionality of Partial Birth Abortion Act of 2003. Would Justice Roberts or Justice Alito be on the Supreme Court if democrats were in control of the senate when their nominations came up? I think the answer to that question is an obvious "no".
Jerome
posted by Jerome at 1:36 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home