What Will Be Impact of NRLC Endorsement?

There will be many articles and blog posts today and tomorrow about what impact the NRLC endorsement might have on the Fred Thompson campaign. David Fredoso has a pretty good piece on National Review Online where he interviews some people from Iowa. They basically say they'd like to see the reasoning behind the NRLC endorsement before they line up behind Thompson.

I pointed out in my earlier post the rationale contained in the NRLC press release, but is there something we're missing? Why did NRLC issue its endorsement now? Was it to sway voters away from Giuliani and toward Thompson? I don't think so. Giuliani is running in fourth place in Iowa and has basically written off the Iowa caucuses. So Thompson doesn't need the NRLC's endorsement to beat Giuliani in Iowa. What about Romney? Could be. Romney's pre-presidential campaign conversion on the abortion issue has pursuaded some evangelicals and pro-lifers to follow him but not many. Most still can't get past Romney's faith. I think the real reason for the NRLC endorsement and the timing of it has to do with Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has been making great strides in recent days mainly because of his showing at the Value Voters meeting in D.C. A strong showing in Iowa -- primarily among evangelicals and the pro-life community -- would give Huckabee tremendous momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. So Thompson needs to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa to keep Huckabee from taking the momentum from there and beating Thompson in South Carolina. And that's what I think is the reasoning and timing behind the NRLC endorsement. Thompson needs the bump to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa and NRLC is trying to deliver that for him.

Jerome

NRLC Endorses Fred Thompson

It's official. The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Fred Thompson today. There was also this statement by Dr. Franz, NRLC President and this one by Karen Cross, NRL PAC Director. Fred Thompson issued this response.

What I find interesting in the press release from NRLC is statement: "In making its endorsement, National Right to Life considered the positions of candidates on the life issues, their records on life issues and their ability to win." (emphasis mine). That's why Mike Huckabee didn't get the endorsement. NRLC doesn't believe he has a chance of winning. Huckabee's pro-life position is more in line with NRLC's than Thompson's. Thompson doesn't support a constitutional ban on abortions and prefers to leave the issue up to the individual states. Huckabee favors a constitutional ban and I believe NRLC does too. It was the electability test more than anything that tilted the NRLC endorsement toward Thompson.

We'll see how the endorsement plays with the evangelical crowd. I believe many evangelicals prefer to have a constitutional ban on abortion. If abortion is wrong then it is wrong in every state. But a constitutional ban is unlikely to ever occur. The more realitic scenario is a reversal of Roe V. Wade and a return of the abortion issue to the individual states, which is what Thompson advocates. If this were to occur then we would have some states that would ban abortions and others that won't.

The NRLC endorsement won't unite all evangelicals behind Fred Thompson but it is a large organization that can make a difference in the primaries.

Jerome