How Divided Is The Religious Right?

There has been much made in recent days about the division among religious right leaders over endorsements for the 2008 presidential election. I've even talked about it on these pages. But is there really a division?

Here is a link to an article in the New York Sun that discussed this issue. It takes the concept of the "Evangelical Crackup" to task. I think the points are valid. During the primary season voters -- whether they are leaders or just common people like you and me -- have the only real opportunity to support and vote for who they really want to. You'll find people who will support Mike Huckabee in the primary election because he more closely mirrors their beliefs than other candidates in the republican field but will support the primary winner in the national election even if it is not Huckabee. Some may support Giuliani in the primary season even though he doesn't match their social beliefs because they feel that he is more electable in the general election than other candidates. I think either way is fine but it doesn't reveal some alleged "crackup" in the religious right as some have pronounced. I'd rather the conservative Christian leadership all support the same candidate because I believe when united the religious right will be difficult to defeat. But such uniformity is hard to achieve during the primary season.

There is also some murmuring about a Giuliani - Huckabee ticket. It is an interesting concept. Giuliani who can attract more moderate/liberal voters in blue states coupled with a socially conservative Huckabee. Giuliani would certainly put New York State in play and the democrats must win New York to accumulate enough electoral votes to win the White House. Here is another link to the Red State blog that discusses the same concept.

On a different note, I had the opportunity to go on a quail hunting trip at Tumbling Creek this week. It is a first rate hunting lodge and if you like quail hunting you should certainly check it out.

Jerome

What Will Be Impact of NRLC Endorsement?

There will be many articles and blog posts today and tomorrow about what impact the NRLC endorsement might have on the Fred Thompson campaign. David Fredoso has a pretty good piece on National Review Online where he interviews some people from Iowa. They basically say they'd like to see the reasoning behind the NRLC endorsement before they line up behind Thompson.

I pointed out in my earlier post the rationale contained in the NRLC press release, but is there something we're missing? Why did NRLC issue its endorsement now? Was it to sway voters away from Giuliani and toward Thompson? I don't think so. Giuliani is running in fourth place in Iowa and has basically written off the Iowa caucuses. So Thompson doesn't need the NRLC's endorsement to beat Giuliani in Iowa. What about Romney? Could be. Romney's pre-presidential campaign conversion on the abortion issue has pursuaded some evangelicals and pro-lifers to follow him but not many. Most still can't get past Romney's faith. I think the real reason for the NRLC endorsement and the timing of it has to do with Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has been making great strides in recent days mainly because of his showing at the Value Voters meeting in D.C. A strong showing in Iowa -- primarily among evangelicals and the pro-life community -- would give Huckabee tremendous momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. So Thompson needs to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa to keep Huckabee from taking the momentum from there and beating Thompson in South Carolina. And that's what I think is the reasoning and timing behind the NRLC endorsement. Thompson needs the bump to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa and NRLC is trying to deliver that for him.

Jerome

NRLC Endorses Fred Thompson

It's official. The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Fred Thompson today. There was also this statement by Dr. Franz, NRLC President and this one by Karen Cross, NRL PAC Director. Fred Thompson issued this response.

What I find interesting in the press release from NRLC is statement: "In making its endorsement, National Right to Life considered the positions of candidates on the life issues, their records on life issues and their ability to win." (emphasis mine). That's why Mike Huckabee didn't get the endorsement. NRLC doesn't believe he has a chance of winning. Huckabee's pro-life position is more in line with NRLC's than Thompson's. Thompson doesn't support a constitutional ban on abortions and prefers to leave the issue up to the individual states. Huckabee favors a constitutional ban and I believe NRLC does too. It was the electability test more than anything that tilted the NRLC endorsement toward Thompson.

We'll see how the endorsement plays with the evangelical crowd. I believe many evangelicals prefer to have a constitutional ban on abortion. If abortion is wrong then it is wrong in every state. But a constitutional ban is unlikely to ever occur. The more realitic scenario is a reversal of Roe V. Wade and a return of the abortion issue to the individual states, which is what Thompson advocates. If this were to occur then we would have some states that would ban abortions and others that won't.

The NRLC endorsement won't unite all evangelicals behind Fred Thompson but it is a large organization that can make a difference in the primaries.

Jerome

NRLC to Endorse Fred Thompson

Jonathan Martin at Politico has a piece up that the National Right to Life Committee will endorse Fred Thompson tomorrow. This would be a coup for Thompson and will further divide evangelical votes. Last week I posted that Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Giuliani and Don Wildmon of the American Family Assocation endorsed Mike Huckabee. Then there was the rumor of a James Dobson endorsement for Huckabee that was denied by both sides later that day, and the denials continue to be reported thru the weekend.

I've even seen some blog posts calling for James Dobson to endorse Ron Paul. I think that is highly unlikely. Pat Robertson endorsed Giuliani because he is trying to stay relevant and wants to be the kingmaker. James Dobson wants a similar role and Ron Paul is not going to be king. That's probably the same reason why Dobson hasn't endorsed Huckabee yet either. If Dobson becomes convinced that Huckabee has a chance of being relevant in the republican primary then Dobson might endorse him. Until then, Dobson will keep his cards close to his vest. And then are religious leaders like Richard Land, Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins -- the ones who want to be the next generation of evangelical kingmakers -- who will carefully decide who to endorse. Their endorsement during this election cycle might not carry the same weight as an endorsement by Dobson, Robertson et al, but they want to make sure they are inside the tent during the next election cycle.

It is both interesting and entertaining to watch all of this unfold. Hopefully the evangelical community will soon fall in behind one candidate. The division is not good for the cause.

UPDATE: Here is another article about the impending endorsement of Fred Thompson by the NRLC.

Jerome