Sarah Palin for VP

I haven't been interested in posting to this blog in quite some time because the presidential race hadn't been exciting. With the most liberal senator in the senate running against a moderate republican, there wasn't much about which evangelicals could be excited. But the selection today by John McCain of Sarah Palin as his running mate changed that.

We are living in very historic times. We are watching history unfold before our eyes. Sure Geraldine Ferraro ran on Walter Mondale's ticket in 1984, but they had no chance of winning. Mondale's selection of Ferraro was viewed by many as a "hail mary". But in less than 24 hours we have seen two historical events. Barack Obama's nomination was historic but also is McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. In November we will either have the first African American as president or the first woman as vice president. Hopefully the latter.

And if you follow that out over the next 4 or 8 years, Sarah Palin could very well be the republican nominee for president in either 2012 (if John McCain only serves one term) or 2016. Wouldn't it be great for the first woman president to be a republican?

By all accounts, Sarah Palin should excite the social conservative base of the republican party. Already many religious leaders like Richard Land, James Dobson, Tony Perkins and Mat Staver are singing her praises.

McCain Palin 2008!! Time for evangelicals to get on board!

Jerome

The Rise of a New Christian Conservative Movement

This article in the New York Times highlights what I see happening among evangelicals. There is a new generation of leadership emerging among Christian conservatives. Guys like Joel Hunter, Rick Warren, Tony Campolo and Randy Brinson are creating a Christian political movement that is different from the Pat Robertson/Jerry Falwell evangelical movement. I have not decided where James Dobson falls. He has certainly been a leader among evangelicals for a long time but to this point in the presidential campaign he hasn't endorsed a candidate. I believe his silence is telling. He may not be sure where the Christian conservative movement is headed.

Rising up as the leader of this movement is Mike Huckabee. Like him or not, he's here to stay. Fred Thompson tried to put Huckabee in his place regarding the Reagan Coalition during the last presidential debate. And while I understand what he was doing, I think it only served to drive more of a wedge between the republican party and Christian conservatives.

Huckabee may become president, vice president, or neither. But one thing's for sure. He will emerge from the presidential race as the new face of Christian conservatives. Just look at the network of grassroots organizations that he now has access to. Look at the media exposure, his media savvy and his likeability. Fellow republicans may not agree with Huckabee's positions on a number of issues, but one thing is for sure. He has been able to rally this "new religious right" of the republican party like nobody else. No doubt about it. Huckabee is here to stay.

Jerome

Fred Thompson -- Picking The Right Time To Peak

Much has been made since Fred Thompson entered the presidential race about Fred being lazy, not having the heart for the job, disappointing, etc. But perhaps that's all part of Fred's plan. Keeping expectations low and then exceeding them would generate a tremendous amount of momentum. Before he formally entered the race, Fred was viewed as the saviour of the conservatives. Everybody was hyped up and Fred was the buzz everywhere. And then he formally entered and by everyone's account he fell flat. His poll numbers have slowly drifted down. But it may all be by design.

Fred must pick the right time to peak. If he peaks too early, then there will be others who have time to pass him. Peak to late and the momentum will have passed him by. But keep expectations low; let everyone talk about him being lazy, not wanting the job, etc.; and then pick up steam at just the right time might just be the game plan for Fred.

Larry Kudlow likes Fred. He interviewed Fred recently and wrote about the fire in Fred's belly that is beginning to show.

In the Real Clear Politics Blog this morning Tom Bevan asked whether Fred is dead or just resting. I suspect the latter. I know some of Fred's campaign people. They've got a strategy. And just when everyone has pushed Fred to the curb he'll do something to gain the momentum. And could that something be an endorsement from James Dobson? If you recall, earlier this year Dobson said that Fred Thompson was not a Christian and that he didn't have the "want to" to be president. Could that position be changing? Fred picked up the National Right to Life Committee's endorsement last week. Could other conservative Christian leaders' endorsements be far behind? I think there is a lot of wisdom in Fred reaching out to evangelical Christians.

I don't think Fred is being lazy. I think Fred is doing things the way he wants to. And I think he's lying in wait for just the right time to peak and steal the momentum away from the other candidates.

Jerome

NRLC to Endorse Fred Thompson

Jonathan Martin at Politico has a piece up that the National Right to Life Committee will endorse Fred Thompson tomorrow. This would be a coup for Thompson and will further divide evangelical votes. Last week I posted that Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Giuliani and Don Wildmon of the American Family Assocation endorsed Mike Huckabee. Then there was the rumor of a James Dobson endorsement for Huckabee that was denied by both sides later that day, and the denials continue to be reported thru the weekend.

I've even seen some blog posts calling for James Dobson to endorse Ron Paul. I think that is highly unlikely. Pat Robertson endorsed Giuliani because he is trying to stay relevant and wants to be the kingmaker. James Dobson wants a similar role and Ron Paul is not going to be king. That's probably the same reason why Dobson hasn't endorsed Huckabee yet either. If Dobson becomes convinced that Huckabee has a chance of being relevant in the republican primary then Dobson might endorse him. Until then, Dobson will keep his cards close to his vest. And then are religious leaders like Richard Land, Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins -- the ones who want to be the next generation of evangelical kingmakers -- who will carefully decide who to endorse. Their endorsement during this election cycle might not carry the same weight as an endorsement by Dobson, Robertson et al, but they want to make sure they are inside the tent during the next election cycle.

It is both interesting and entertaining to watch all of this unfold. Hopefully the evangelical community will soon fall in behind one candidate. The division is not good for the cause.

UPDATE: Here is another article about the impending endorsement of Fred Thompson by the NRLC.

Jerome

Dobson to Endorse Huckabee?

Rumors swirled all day about a potential endorsement of Mike Huckabee by James Dobson. Such an endorsement would be huge for the Huckabee campaign. It all started with this piece on the American Spectator website. (I've had trouble connecting to the site this evening so keep checking back if you have problems too). The article was later updated when Dobson's people said no endorsement was imminent. Then late today the Huckabee camp issued this statement.

The interesting thing about the denials from both sides is that neither said Dobson wasn't going to endorse Huckabee. Only that an endorsement isn't imminent. Dobson may still endorse Huckabee eventually. Huckabee is one of the few (if not the only) candidate that Dobson hasn't declared unacceptable. If Wildmon and Dobson both support Huckabee, many other evangelical leaders would likely follow suit. It might be enough to get Huckabee in the top tier of the republican candidates and it could lead to a nomination or at least a V.P. slot.

Jerome

Where Will The Religious Right Turn?

Christian Conservatives still do not have a consenus candidate for the 2008 presidential election. Many thought that Fred Thompson was going to fill the void and become the religious community's choice. But as Robert Novak points out in this article many religious leaders are already turning sour on Thompson because of public statements on abortion and gay marriage. His senate voting record was impeccably pro-life. But Thompson's statements on Tim Russert's show has some religious leaders cringing.

And then yesterday Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Guiliani. How could that happen? One of the leaders of the Moral Majority endorsing a pro-choice candidate who has been married multiple times! James Dobson has said that he will absolutely not support Giuliani and might even lead Christian voters into a third party vote if Giuliani gets the republican nomination. What is going on? Pat Robertson and James Dobson are on polar extremes regarding Giuliani's candidacy. This just underscores the divide among evangelicals.

I think the religious community must unite behind one candidate. If we're fractured then we will end up with candidate choices that are unacceptable. And we'll end up with someone in the White House that will cause further decay in our culture. I'm convinced that the next president will be in a position to nominate two, if not three, judges to the U.S. Supreme Court. Who do we want making those nominations? Certainly not Hillary Clinton.

What do religious leaders find wrong with Mike Huckabee? In the article I referenced above by Novak, he writes that some say that Huckabee is part of the "Christian Left" whatever that means. The Club For Growth gave him low marks and a couple of weeks ago Phyllis Schlafly slammed Huckabee. But Huckabee continues to build support among evangelicals.

I understand the politics of why a Giuliani candidacy appeals to some in the republican party. He probably can carry New York state. Without New York, the democrats will have a hard time winning the White House. But what traditional republican states are lost with a Giuliani candidacy? Will the New York electoral votes be enough to offset the losses? Would a Giuliani - Huckabee ticket make sense? Or Huckabee - Giuliani? What about a mixture of Thompson and Giuliani. Could some combination like these appease evangelicals and at the same time entice voters in traditional democrat states like New York? It is interesting to think about the impact of different combinations.

On a completely different front, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Deadfall by Robert Liparulo. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy.


UPDATE: After I wrote my post today, Don Wildmon of the American Family Association endorsed Mike Huckabee. If you're keeping score that's Robertson for Giuliani and Wildmon for Huckabee. Still waiting on religious leaders like James Dobson, Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins to show their cards.

Jerome

Select a Candidate

On Thursday mornings, I do a 15 - 30 minute legal talk segment on Super Talk 97.7 with Stevie Ray Hemann. This morning Stevie Ray pointed out this quiz you can take on the WQAD website. Click on the Take the Quiz! link. I did and the result was that Fred Thompson most closely resembles my views. I encourage you to see how the candidates match up with your views and positions.

On a similar note, is the Religious Right marginalizing itself in this election? Some of the leaders of the Religious Right (James Dobson, Tony Perkins) are stating publicly that if neither political party nominates someone who is pro-life, then they plan to support a third party candidate. Here is an article in the American Spectator and another in Politico that discuss this topic. It is an interesting discussion but I hope it doesn't happen. If the Religious Right abandons the republican party then what will happen is that Hillary Clinton will be elected president. I don't think the republican party can win the White House without the religious right.

Lastly, this week the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Nobody by Creston Mapes. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy of this book.

Jerome

Rudy's Not The One

Dr. James Dobson wrote and article that appeared in World Net Daily he unequivocally and irrevocably said that he would not support Rudy Giuliani for president under any circumstances. Dobson said that he would rather not vote -- or vote for someone who cannot win -- that to vote for Giuliani, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Those are strong words. Dr. Dobson is very influential among evangelicals. He has told us who he will not support. The only question remaining is who will he support?

Jerome

Richard Land Warms to Possible Thompson Candidacy

Much of the political news this week was about the fundraising by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Obama won the first round but they both raised a ton of cash. And cash is what it takes to run an effective campaign. Both should continue to be very formidable throughout the primary. John Edwards continues to hang around but Clinton and Obama will soon be chasing all other democratic candidates from the race.

In the midst of the reporting over the democratic fundraising, this article ran quietly. Richard Land, the president of the Southern Baptist Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, had positive comments to say about Fred Thompson. This is on the heels of James Dobson negative comments last week. Dr. Land had no praise for Rudy Guiliani or Newt Gingrich.

Also, this article brought Rudy Guiliani's liberal social views back to the forefront. As Dr. Land pointed out, most social conservatives will have trouble pulling the lever for Guiliani in the primary.

Senator Lamar Alexander was in Jackson today and spoke at a small gathering at the Old Country Store. The stop was part of his tour across the state announcing that he plans to seek reelection in 2008. Much of the talk in the room was also about a possible Fred Thompson campaign for the presidency.

The grassroots drive to draft Fred Thompson continues to grow. He must make a decision in the next couple of months, though. He is falling behind on fundraising -- although Thompson has the ability to raise money quickly. Mitt Romney had a huge first quarter in fundraising and it will take a lot for Thompson to catch-up to Romney in that area -- if he gets in -- given how late in the race it is. But from this poll that shows Thompson in third place in the republican field -- ahead of Romney -- you wouldn't know that Thompson isn't even in the race yet.

Jerome

Update on Dobson/Thompson

Yesterday I posted on James Dobson's statement that he does not believe Fred Thompson is a Christian. That statement spread throughout the internet and was discussed on several blogs including this one. Today I received an e-mail that originated with Reuben Watkins of Grassroots Voters. I've cut and pasted the body of the e-mail here:

Friends,

Last night the DrudgeReport.com posted a link to an article in U.S. News & World Report titled: Dobson Offers Insight on 2008 Republican Hopefuls, Focus on Family Founder Snubs Thompson, Praises Gingrich. The calls and emails were fast and furious and I do mean furious!

This morning I had an opportunity to speak with Brad Miller, Director of Family Policy Council at Focus. We had a great conversation and Brad confirmed what many of us had been suspecting - the article was not an accurate representation of the conversation.

Dr. Dobson had never actually spoken with Fred and did not know Fred's personal viewpoints and beliefs firsthand.. Dr. Dobson noted that Fred's voting record while in the Senate was to be praised and indicated a strong conservative, pro-family position. Dobson did not know Fred to be an outspoken evangelical, which can be considered a negative in some circles. The notion that Dr. Dobson was supporting a potential Gingrich candidacy over others was also false. Brad also mentioned that there is a great deal of excitement among the "religious right" about a potential Fred Thompson candidacy and that Dr. Dobson was not endorsing or supporting any candidate or potential candidates at this time.

I appreciate Brad for the conversation and helping to clear the air on this and I appreciate your ongoing efforts in supporting a potential Fred Thompson candidacy. If you haven't been to the site lately, please take a minute stop by: http://www.grassrootsvoter.com We are well on our way to our goal of organizing 10,000 Fred Thompson supporters!

[End of e-mail]

You can see that all sides are trying to clarify the statement but the damage may already be done. One of the leaders of conservative Christians is on the record (and on the internet) as saying that Fred Thompson is not a Christian. The second part is that the response by the Thompson camp is that Thompson was baptized into the Church of Christ. To some evangelical Christians, the response may be more damaging than the initial statement.

I also would like to point out something else. I think it is completely impossible for a person to definitively state that another person is or is not a Christian. A person might be able to say "he doesn't act like a Christian" or "he doesn't fit my definition of what a Christian is" or something like that, but someone certainly cannot comment on another's salvation. The relation between a person and Jesus Christ is individual to that person, and only he/she and Christ know the truth.

Hopefully Dr. Dobson was mis-quoted -- I know from personal experience that it happens all too often when dealing with the media.

Jerome

James Dobson Says Fred Thompson NOT a Christian!

This article released today quotes James Dobson as saying that he doesn't believe Fred Thompson is a Christian. The Thompson camp quickly countered by saying that Thompson is in fact a Christian, and was baptized in the Church of Christ.

James Dobson carries tremendous weight among conservatives and this statement could have a real (negative) impact on Fred Thompson's candidacy. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next several days.

Jerome

The Three Kingmakers

In a recent post I questioned whether Jerry Falwell was still relevant to the question of what religious leaders have influence on the political process. This article in Newsweek discusses the Three Kingmakers (Jerry Falwell, Pat Roberston and James Dobson). According to this article Falwell appears to be in McCain's camp; Robertson appears to be leaning toward Romney; and Dobson hasn't settled on a candidate yet. Huckabee might ultimately be Dobson's choice.

It will be interesting to see which candidate these three support. None appear to be behind Guiliani, and it doesn't appear that Guiliani is courting any of the three. Other republican candidates are trying to secure endorsements from these religious leaders. McCain realizes the necessity of the religious right because he is attempting to repair damage he did to the relationship with religious leaders during the 2000 presidential primaries. However, none of the democratic candidates are seeking endorsements from conservative Christian leaders. I think that speaks volumes.

Jerome

Is Jerry Falwell Still Relevant?

Reuters has an article where Jerry Falwell stated that he would like to have a like minded republican elected president in 2008 and at least one more conservative jurist on the supreme court. I would like to see the samethings. But I wonder whether Jerry Falwell still has much influence among conservatives and the republican party. It seems to me that the mantle of the religious right is now in the hands of personalities like James Dobson, Tony Perkins, Richard Land and Gary Bauer. I don't hear much about Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson unless they are making some outlandish statement that the networks pick up on.

Electing a conservative republican to the White House in 2008 is extremely important. Having a conservative jurist appointed to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court is also very important. I'm just not sure that Jerry Falwell can make either happen.

And I doubt even Falwell is feeling inspired by the crop of republican candidates: John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Guiliani. But perhaps there is still hope of a true conservative emerging who will energize the religious right base of the party.

Jerome