Mike Huckabee Moving Up

Mike Huckabee continues to move up not only in political polls but also on Technorati. Technorati maintains most popular lists and "Mike Huckabee" is the 7th most popular search phrase. Click on Huckabee's name and you can see numerous blog entries about Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee is now polling at 7.7% in the Real Clear Politics Average and his best showing is 12% in the Rasmussen poll. Back in the summer, Huckabee was polling at 2% or 3%. Guiliani still leads with Thompson second, McCain, Romney and Huckabee in fifth place. The Iowa caucuses are only about 2 months away and a strong showing there could really propel Huckabee into the top tier.

The media (even international media) continues to report that Fred Thompson's campaign is uninspiring. It will be interesting to see if Thompson's campaign gains some traction in the next few weeks ahead of the Iowa caucuses. I hope he does.

Jerome

Roundup of Presidential Campaign Headlines

Late last week word began to circulate that Fred Thompson planned to finally announce his intentions to seek the republican nomination at a news conference in Nashville tomorrow. Speculation now is that he will only announce that he plans to open his national headquarters in Nashville. We'll see how this plays out. He may still make a formal announcement tomorrow but most are betting against it.

The latest polls have Fred Thompson leading in Nevada. This without even actually announcing that he is a candidate. Michael Barone has this recap of how the polls have moved over the last several months.

Stuart Rothenberg has John McCain's presidential aspiration on its death bed. Robert Novak reported at the end of last week that McCain's people were pleading for money before the end of June. McCain has sent out a SOS because he wants the quarterly financial report to look better than is anticipated. His goal was to raise $10,000,000 in the second quarter and he is falling short. If the polls referenced above are accurate, McCain needs something big soon or he will effectively be out of the race. Money will start flowing to the candidates that republican votes believe have a chance of winning. The ole electability litmus test.

Rudy Guiliani is planning to speak to conservative Christians at Regents University. He likely won't address his position on abortion and gay marriage but he does need to start making some headway among Christian conservatives. Catholic leaders are already expressing their disappointment over Guiliani's stance on abortion.

This week the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance will be conducting a blog tour on my new novel, The Divine Appointment. If you would like a copy, you can order one here or here.

Jerome

Thompson Closing in on Guiliani

New poll numbers are out and the soon-to-be-candidate Fred Thompson is closing in on Guiliani's lead. Here are some numbers. Rasmussen has Thompson in a tie with Guiliani. These poll numbers has Thompson in second place among the GOP field.

George Will asks whether Fred Thompson's bubble will burst like the dot come craze of the 1990's. Is Thompson all charm and no substance?

Then there is this recurring question of whether Guiliani can win the nomination? In order to do so he'll have to win over the conservative Christians in the republican party.

And if John McCain's campaign is out of money, then will the republican primary come down to a horse race between the late starting Thompson campaign and the pro-choice campaign of Rudy Guiliani? So far it doesn't seem like and second tier candidates such as Mike Huckabee can gain any traction.

Jerome

Fred's In (Probably)

If you haven't already heard, the word on the street is that Fred Thompson is definitely running for president. He is expected to announce around the Fourth of July. Also, check out this article. There are several articles today on this topic. This blog questions whether Fred really wants it. Another article debates whether he will play well outside of the south. And still another discusses what other republican candidates a Thompson campaign will hurt (and this one does too). This recent buzz was generated as a result of a fundraising conference call Thompson had recently with large donors.

Frankly, I'm glad he's getting in. I think it will give some energy to the republican primary that is lacking so far, and if he wins the nomination I think he has the ability to beat any nominee the democrats put forward.

Jerome

Rudy's Not The One

Dr. James Dobson wrote and article that appeared in World Net Daily he unequivocally and irrevocably said that he would not support Rudy Giuliani for president under any circumstances. Dobson said that he would rather not vote -- or vote for someone who cannot win -- that to vote for Giuliani, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Those are strong words. Dr. Dobson is very influential among evangelicals. He has told us who he will not support. The only question remaining is who will he support?

Jerome

Will Abortion Issue Decide Primary?

Has the GOP become a one issue party? Some believe that and are warning against it. They say that although Rudy Guiliani is pro-choice the party should still nominate him for the White House in 2008. I disagree.

The republican party must not give up the pro-life plank in its platform. It is too important. We must faithfully support the santity of human life and that includes the battle against embryonic stem cell research as well as against abortion.

There are many articles today on what impact Guiliani's decision to solidify his pro-choice position will have on the republican primary. E.J. Dionne writes that Guiliani's position will challenge the pro-life republicans. Dionne says that if pro-lifers are serious, then they must oppose Guiliani the same as they did John Kerry. Jack Kelly says that he supports Guiliani because he believers Guiliani's leadership qualities trump his position on abortion. The New York Daily News editorial today says that Guiliani's position brings the republican party to a crossroads. Does it spurn Guiliani because of his position on abortion or does it embrace him because he is electable? Cal Thomas challenges Guiliani's position in his article today and suggests that the republican party can certainly win the White House in 2008 while nominating a pro-life candidate. It did so with Reagan, Bush I and Bush II.

And the battle continues on the front lines between abortion and pro-life activists. The Washington Times has a two-part story ending today on the battle among the two groups that will impact the 2008 race. Both sides realize that control of the White House leads to nominations to federal court benches (particularly the supreme court) which is really what the battle is all about.

I do hope that the republican party not only reaffirms its pro-life position but advances it.

Lastly, Jerry Falwell passed away today. He was one of the leaders in the religious right movement of the 1980's. He was vilified by some and revered by others. There's no doubt he spoke his mind and influenced many people. Whether you loved him or hated him, there is no questioning the fact that he had a huge impact on national politics over the last 25 years.

Jerome

Weekend Headlines

Here are some stories that ran over the weekend that I found interesting. Several writers discussed Rudy Guiliani's abortion position. Guiliani has sent mixed messages about his stance on abortion and he tried to clarify his position late last week. The Wall Street Journal said that the GOP needs to avoid a brawl over the abortion issue. It opined that an internal fight among the GOP over abortion will open the door wide for a democrat to win the White House. Pat Buchanan has a different take on the issue and stated that Guiliani is not welcome in Buchanan's GOP -- which he defines as the party of Reagan. And lastly on this issue, Peter Brown of RealClearPolitics published an article that Guiliani's decision to de-emphasize the caucuses in Iowa and the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina defies history and logic.

Fred Thompson told a reporter in Florida that he isn't rushing his decision. With the Florida primaries on January 29, it seems to me that he might need to speed up his deliberations, though.

Mike Huckabee may have scored some points in the republican debate a week ago but may not get support from a former staffer who now runs the South Carolina GOP.

Recent poll averages show Guiliani leading, with McCain second, Thompson third and Romney fourth.

Jerome

The Religious Right Kingmaker

I found this article in the Wall Street Journal particularly interesting. It labels Richard Land as the "would-be" kingmaker among conservative Christians. Clearly he doesn't like or support Guiliani. I get the impression he could get behind Mitt Romney if he takes a lead -- and Land's advice. And then there is the litmus test of electability. While Land likes candidates such as Huckabee, Brownback and Hunter, he doesn't find them electable. And he certainly isn't in favor of a Gingrich candidacy. But one thing did catch my eye in this article. Land is quoted as saying that a Fred Thompson candidacy was "tantalizing." That's interesting.

Land is clearly playing his cards close to his vest and hasn't endorsed a candidate yet. But we conservative Christians are in a strange predicament this presidential election. The lending contenders are far from perfect. Of the top tier, Land clearly finds Romney's candidacy as the most likeable. He refused to describe Romney's changing position on abortion as a flip flop but rather as a journey to the truth.

Speaking of Fred Thompson, he has also generated some interest in the British press. This report in The Telegraph indicates that many former Ronald Reagan allies are lining up behind Thompson. And the Draft Fred Thompson campaign has moved into Texas. I think an announcement by Thompson is imminent.

Jerome

Is He In or Not?

More Fred Thompson. The Weekly Standard has an interview with Fred Thompson that is really enlightening on several topics. One that is important to me is that Thompson affirmatively states that he is pro-life. There have been reports since Thompson's senate campaign years ago that he was pro-choice -- at least in some instances. He tries to clear that up in this piece. Also, Bill Frist is quoted as saying that the story about Thompson's lymphoma needed to get out early -- before Thompson announces that he's running.

It certainly sounds as though Thompson is running. Some firmly believe that he is not. While others are even more certain that he is. My best guess is that he is leaning toward running. I think he must announce before the end of June. He is way behind in fundraising and has a lot of ground to make up.

So while all of the republican candidates are swarming all over Iowa, Fred Thompson is sitting at his home outside of Washington waiting for just the right moment. We'll see when that is.

Jerome

Richard Land Warms to Possible Thompson Candidacy

Much of the political news this week was about the fundraising by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Obama won the first round but they both raised a ton of cash. And cash is what it takes to run an effective campaign. Both should continue to be very formidable throughout the primary. John Edwards continues to hang around but Clinton and Obama will soon be chasing all other democratic candidates from the race.

In the midst of the reporting over the democratic fundraising, this article ran quietly. Richard Land, the president of the Southern Baptist Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, had positive comments to say about Fred Thompson. This is on the heels of James Dobson negative comments last week. Dr. Land had no praise for Rudy Guiliani or Newt Gingrich.

Also, this article brought Rudy Guiliani's liberal social views back to the forefront. As Dr. Land pointed out, most social conservatives will have trouble pulling the lever for Guiliani in the primary.

Senator Lamar Alexander was in Jackson today and spoke at a small gathering at the Old Country Store. The stop was part of his tour across the state announcing that he plans to seek reelection in 2008. Much of the talk in the room was also about a possible Fred Thompson campaign for the presidency.

The grassroots drive to draft Fred Thompson continues to grow. He must make a decision in the next couple of months, though. He is falling behind on fundraising -- although Thompson has the ability to raise money quickly. Mitt Romney had a huge first quarter in fundraising and it will take a lot for Thompson to catch-up to Romney in that area -- if he gets in -- given how late in the race it is. But from this poll that shows Thompson in third place in the republican field -- ahead of Romney -- you wouldn't know that Thompson isn't even in the race yet.

Jerome

Polls Show Fred Thompson Moving Up

Two polls were released on Monday that showed Fred Thompson clearly moving into third place among republican candidates -- and he isn't even a candidate yet. Real Clear Politics has a link to both the USA Today/Gallup poll and the Zogby poll. Thompson's gains appear to be at the expense of Guiliani and Romney. There was also a report out this week that the John McCain camp says it will not reach fundraising goals by the end of March.

In researching some sites about Fred Thompson I found this list by Congressman Zach Wamp of why Fred Thompson should be president. Wamp is a congressman from east Tennessee.

And then there is this interview with Governor Mike Huckabee. He seems to be lost in the crowd and hardly mentioned anymore (not that he was mentioned a lot before).

The web is buzzing with Fred Thompson. His potential candidacy seems to be hitting Mitt Romney and Rudy Guiliani the hardest. John McCain is languishing. And the primaries are still almost a year away.

Jerome

Fred Thompson Still the Topic of Conversation

I haven't posted all week because I've been consumed with the decades old desegregation lawsuit in Madison County and in trying to obtain unitary status for the school system. So I haven't had time to blog.

But in looking back at the week I was surprised at the number of hits on my blog from people looking for information about Fred Thompson. The search requests for Fred Thompson far exceeded any I've ever had for the other republican candidates like Rudy Guiliani, John McCain or Mitt Romney. Many of the search requests were for information about Thompson's religious beliefs. I would like to know something about that too. I've asked around but can't find any public pronouncements by Thompson on this point. Perhaps he will make one some time.

There really does seem to be a tremendous amount of interest among conservatives about Thompson. I've received two e-mail blasts from Bill Frist and his VOLPAC. I've received e-mails from friends wanting me to sign a petition at Grass Roots Voters urging Fred Thompson to run. One friend's e-mail said "finally a candidate I can support." What is it about Thompson that is exciting conservatives?

My last post outlined his positions on issues important to conservatives, but is it just that? He has been married previously but that doesn't seem to dissuade conservative Christians from getting behind him. I suspect it is the old litmus test I talked about before: electability. He has the conservative credentials and conservatives see him as someone who can win.

Some pundits believe that Guiliani and Romney will keep Thompson out of the race. Others say that he is in line to take Paul Harvey's place on his popular radio show and that is too enticing to Thompson.

I don't know if Thompson will get in the race or not, but I do know one thing at this point. He certain is garnering more attention than the candidates who have already announced. Will see if the conservatives are able to draft Fred Thompson.

Jerome

Fred Thompson's Positions on the Issues

The possibility of Fred Thompson running for president has generated a lot of interest over the weekend. There are some who say that there is no chance Thompson will run. But the web seems to be buzzing with questions about Thompson's faith and his position on different issues. Yesterday Chris Wallace interviewed Thompson on Fox News and here is a transcript of that interview. Many conservatives have to like what they heard: Pro-life; believes Roe v. Wade should be overturned; against gun control; against same-sex marriage; and supports President Bush's surge of troops in Iraq. Many of the republican candidates already in the race must be concerned about a potential Fred Thompson campaign.

Also yesterday Rudy Guiliani's words from years ago about public funding for abortion were replayed. Nothing new really. Everybody knows that Guiliani is pro-abortion and the fact that he supports (or at least supported) public funding for abortions would have to be inferred.

Fred Thompson basically said that he isn't convinced that any in the republican field of candidates is capable of "carry[ing] the ball" in November 2008. He's going to wait a few months before making a final decision about running. But if the other candidates don't start showing they have the ability to win in November, 2008, look for Thompson to jump in.

Jerome

Back to Politics as Usual

It's been almost a week since I had time to post. I was out-of-town most of the weekend attending the Mega Book University with Terry Whalin. I've spent the first part of this week catching up and brainstorming some other writing projects. Now it's time to get back to the regular routine.

Ever since the Drudge Report flashed the sirens and posted in bright red letters that Scooter Libby had been convicted of perjury, etc., the media has been consumed with the story. Jurors have been interviewed, claims that this conviction puts Vice President Cheney and the entire White House in a bad light have been raised by liberal media, and there have even been calls for President Bush to pardon Libby by at least one of the jurors. It has consumed several days of news cycles and it will be interesting to see if the fallout has any impact on the 2008 presidential election.

Somewhat lost in the Scooter Libby hoopla were a couple of articles about Rudy Guiliani that I read over the last couple of days. First was this one that ask whether Guiliani can get past the first date. It is an issue I addressed some time ago. Then I said that Guiliani would have a very difficult time winning the republican primary but would be a very electable candidate in the general election against any democratic candidate, including Hillary Clinton. The other article opines that evangelicals will vote for Guiliani because of his wartime leadership despite his positions on gun control, same sex marriage and abortion. It is the electability litmus test. Guiliani does have a huge lead in early polling in the USA Today polls.

The question continues to be whether a true social conservative will move into the top tier of republican candidates. So far it isn't happening. And as more money is raised by the leaders, the chances of it happening continue to diminish significantly. Will conservative republicans look to the electability test rather than where a candidate stands on important conservative issues? So far it appears to be the case.

Jerome

Who Will Fill Conservative Void?

The question that many are asking so early in the 2008 presidential campaign is who will fill the conservative void? What Robert Novak and other pundits are asking is who is the real conservative who will step to the front of the republican candidates? The consensus is that so far there isn't one. John McCain or Rudy Guiliani can't fill the void although Guiliani plans meet with some conservative leaders tomorrow. Mitt Romney is certainly trying to secure the conservative base into his camp.

I've mentioned Mike Huckabee often as a potential candidate who could secure at least the social conservative votes. Some are trying to solicit him to run for the U.S. Senate rather than the White House. Another name that I ran across yesterday but had completely forgotten about is Jim Gilmore. I don't know anything about him other than what is on his exploratory committee website but he seemed to make waves at the Conservative Political Action Convention in Washington this week.

I think it is important that we have a true conservative in the top tier of the republican candidates but no one seems to be stepping up at this point.

On a different note, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is bloggin this week about A Valley of Betrayal by Tricia Goyer. I hope you get a chance to read the reviews and purchase Tricia's book.

Jerome

Should Religion and Politics Mix?

It's an age-old question. Some argue that religion and one's relationship with God should be a personal matter and not have a bearing on politics. They are argue that religion should stay out of politics. Similarly, others hang their hat the "constitution" and argue that there should be a "separation of church and state". The problem with that argument is that this provision is nowhere to be found in the constitution.

Jim Wallis of Time writes today that the era of the religious right is over. I doubt that is true. If it is, then why are so many candidates courting the support of religious leaders? Another article takes the position that voters are more likely to find Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in church than Rudy Guiliani or John McCain. The point of the story is that the religious gap between the republican party and the democratic party is narrowing. Is it?

Others are tauting Rudy Guiliani as having the ability to sway conservative voters without bowing to the religious leaders. Guiliani has said that he hates abortion but supports a woman's right to choose. He is in favor of civil unions and gun control and has been married three times. Richard Land of the Southern Baptists' Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission said that Guiliani is "unacceptable" to social conservatives. But Guiliani says that he will appoint conservative judges like Alito and Roberts -- judges that are strict constructionists -- and that is music to conservatives' ears.

It's an interesting discussion: The mix of politics and religion. One's religion has always been part of that person's decision making. And that makes the separation of politics and religion virtually impossible. A person's fundamental belief -- whether shaped by religion and faith or something else -- will influence their decision making if they hold public office. There is no way around it. So should religion and politics mix? I think it is unavoidable.

Jerome

The Three Kingmakers

In a recent post I questioned whether Jerry Falwell was still relevant to the question of what religious leaders have influence on the political process. This article in Newsweek discusses the Three Kingmakers (Jerry Falwell, Pat Roberston and James Dobson). According to this article Falwell appears to be in McCain's camp; Robertson appears to be leaning toward Romney; and Dobson hasn't settled on a candidate yet. Huckabee might ultimately be Dobson's choice.

It will be interesting to see which candidate these three support. None appear to be behind Guiliani, and it doesn't appear that Guiliani is courting any of the three. Other republican candidates are trying to secure endorsements from these religious leaders. McCain realizes the necessity of the religious right because he is attempting to repair damage he did to the relationship with religious leaders during the 2000 presidential primaries. However, none of the democratic candidates are seeking endorsements from conservative Christian leaders. I think that speaks volumes.

Jerome

GOP Searches for True Conservative

The GOP continues to search for a true conservative to run for the White House in 2008. Mitt Romney is trying to become the right's candidate, but I'm not convinced he can fit the bill. This article points out why I'm not convinced. Romney's wife Ann did, however, point out that her husband is the only one among Romney, John McCain and Rudy Guiliani who has only had one wife. Conservative Christians will take note of that fact but is it enough to win their vote. I doubt it since Romney hasn't been consistent on other social issues.

What about Mike Huckabee? Here is a link to his interview over the weekend on ABC News. Huckabee doesn't fit the republican mold on every issue (who does?) but on social/cultural issues he is in line with conservative Christians. That will certain get him significant consideration among that voting bloc.

Lastly (and unrelated to politics) my friend, Terry Whalin, published a "must have" book about the secrets to getting published titled Book Proposals That $ell. It can now be ordered from this blog through the link on the side that reads "Want to get a book published?"

Jerome

Is Jerry Falwell Still Relevant?

Reuters has an article where Jerry Falwell stated that he would like to have a like minded republican elected president in 2008 and at least one more conservative jurist on the supreme court. I would like to see the samethings. But I wonder whether Jerry Falwell still has much influence among conservatives and the republican party. It seems to me that the mantle of the religious right is now in the hands of personalities like James Dobson, Tony Perkins, Richard Land and Gary Bauer. I don't hear much about Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson unless they are making some outlandish statement that the networks pick up on.

Electing a conservative republican to the White House in 2008 is extremely important. Having a conservative jurist appointed to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court is also very important. I'm just not sure that Jerry Falwell can make either happen.

And I doubt even Falwell is feeling inspired by the crop of republican candidates: John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Guiliani. But perhaps there is still hope of a true conservative emerging who will energize the religious right base of the party.

Jerome

Is Rudy In?

Back in November, Rudy Guiliani filed papers to create an exploratory committee and gave the caveat that he was "testing the waters." Over the weekend he said there was a really good chance that he was going to run. Today he filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. Does that mean he's running or not?

The attached article reports that the filings today put Guiliani on the same page as John McCain and Mitt Romney, legally. Perhaps some more formal announcement can be expected from the Guiliani camp in the not too distant future.

Jerome