Fred Surge?

I've pointed out before that political campaigns are all about momentum. About a month ago I posted about whether Fred Thompson was waiting for just the right time to peak. It may be happening -- right on time for Thompson's campaign.

The rave in the last couple of weeks has been about Mike Huckabee. There were even headlines that read "Huck-a-boom" as he surged ahead in polls in Iowa and South Carolina. But since Tuesday, Fred Thompson has captured the headlines.

Fred's rebellion toward the Des Moines Register editor who moderated the debate on Tuesday has been the sound bite from that debate. Fred has been the talk of the town since Tuesday. The American Spectator declared that Fred isn't dead. There is even talk of whether Fred can surge in Iowa. And with Huckabee apologizing to Romney and Hillary apologizing to Obama, Fred decided he should apologize too. Fred's been on his A game this week.

The polls have Thompson running third in Iowa behind Huckabee and Romney. But in South Carolina he has moved back into second place. Although he is a distant third in Iowa, he could really gain some momentum if he closes that gap. Even if he finishes third in Iowa, he could snatch the momentum away by coming in a close third -- much closer than he's polling at now. That momentum could catapult him into either a South Carolina win or a strong second place finish there. Either one would keep his momentum going into the Super Tuesday primaries on February 5. And who knows what could happen then? He may not win enough delegate votes to take the nomination but he might get enough to be a player in a brokered convention.

On a different note, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing What Lies Within by Karen Ball. I hope you get a chance to pick-up a copy of this book.

Jerome

What Will Be Impact of NRLC Endorsement?

There will be many articles and blog posts today and tomorrow about what impact the NRLC endorsement might have on the Fred Thompson campaign. David Fredoso has a pretty good piece on National Review Online where he interviews some people from Iowa. They basically say they'd like to see the reasoning behind the NRLC endorsement before they line up behind Thompson.

I pointed out in my earlier post the rationale contained in the NRLC press release, but is there something we're missing? Why did NRLC issue its endorsement now? Was it to sway voters away from Giuliani and toward Thompson? I don't think so. Giuliani is running in fourth place in Iowa and has basically written off the Iowa caucuses. So Thompson doesn't need the NRLC's endorsement to beat Giuliani in Iowa. What about Romney? Could be. Romney's pre-presidential campaign conversion on the abortion issue has pursuaded some evangelicals and pro-lifers to follow him but not many. Most still can't get past Romney's faith. I think the real reason for the NRLC endorsement and the timing of it has to do with Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has been making great strides in recent days mainly because of his showing at the Value Voters meeting in D.C. A strong showing in Iowa -- primarily among evangelicals and the pro-life community -- would give Huckabee tremendous momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. So Thompson needs to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa to keep Huckabee from taking the momentum from there and beating Thompson in South Carolina. And that's what I think is the reasoning and timing behind the NRLC endorsement. Thompson needs the bump to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa and NRLC is trying to deliver that for him.

Jerome

Mike Huckabee Moving Up

Mike Huckabee continues to move up not only in political polls but also on Technorati. Technorati maintains most popular lists and "Mike Huckabee" is the 7th most popular search phrase. Click on Huckabee's name and you can see numerous blog entries about Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee is now polling at 7.7% in the Real Clear Politics Average and his best showing is 12% in the Rasmussen poll. Back in the summer, Huckabee was polling at 2% or 3%. Guiliani still leads with Thompson second, McCain, Romney and Huckabee in fifth place. The Iowa caucuses are only about 2 months away and a strong showing there could really propel Huckabee into the top tier.

The media (even international media) continues to report that Fred Thompson's campaign is uninspiring. It will be interesting to see if Thompson's campaign gains some traction in the next few weeks ahead of the Iowa caucuses. I hope he does.

Jerome