Classic Fred

Here is a link to a post on RedState about some "yearbook" questions the AP sent to all of the candidates and Fred Thompson's responses. Its classic Fred like the Michael Moore cigar video and the "no hands show" at the DMR debate last week.

Fred needs a lot of buzz over the next couple of weeks and stuff like this may get him some. You have to give it Fred, win or loose, he's certainly having fun.

Jerome

Fred Surge?

I've pointed out before that political campaigns are all about momentum. About a month ago I posted about whether Fred Thompson was waiting for just the right time to peak. It may be happening -- right on time for Thompson's campaign.

The rave in the last couple of weeks has been about Mike Huckabee. There were even headlines that read "Huck-a-boom" as he surged ahead in polls in Iowa and South Carolina. But since Tuesday, Fred Thompson has captured the headlines.

Fred's rebellion toward the Des Moines Register editor who moderated the debate on Tuesday has been the sound bite from that debate. Fred has been the talk of the town since Tuesday. The American Spectator declared that Fred isn't dead. There is even talk of whether Fred can surge in Iowa. And with Huckabee apologizing to Romney and Hillary apologizing to Obama, Fred decided he should apologize too. Fred's been on his A game this week.

The polls have Thompson running third in Iowa behind Huckabee and Romney. But in South Carolina he has moved back into second place. Although he is a distant third in Iowa, he could really gain some momentum if he closes that gap. Even if he finishes third in Iowa, he could snatch the momentum away by coming in a close third -- much closer than he's polling at now. That momentum could catapult him into either a South Carolina win or a strong second place finish there. Either one would keep his momentum going into the Super Tuesday primaries on February 5. And who knows what could happen then? He may not win enough delegate votes to take the nomination but he might get enough to be a player in a brokered convention.

On a different note, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing What Lies Within by Karen Ball. I hope you get a chance to pick-up a copy of this book.

Jerome

What is Driving the Huckabee Surge?

The short answer is "social conservatives". But is there a longer answer? Mike Huckabee has little if any money and certainly doesn't have the infrastructure in Iowa that Mitt Romney has. So how is he getting his message out?

This Washington Post article implies that there is a grassroots network of "pastors, parents who home-school their children, and other Christian conservatives." It appears that there is a broad based support among social conservatives in Iowa for Huckabee. Even Tim LeHaye, co-author of the popular Left Behind series of books is making campaign appearances with Huckabee.

Huckabee has also tapped into the network of Christians that was compiled by Redeem The Vote. RTV has an impressive list of 71,000,000 names and e-mail addresses of Christian voters. 71,000,000! And even though RTV offered access to the list to all candidates -- democrat and republican alike -- only Huckabee took them up on it. And it appears to be paying off for him in Iowa.

Huckabee has recently condemned the push polling by an organization called Trust Huckabee, stating that it doesn't represent what his campaign is about. And the Weekly Standard's Dean Barnett admits that he underestimated Huckabee. Even Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform seems to have softened to Huckabee.

But can Huckabee's momentum last? Assuming he performs well in Iowa (finishes first or second), New Hampshire is a much bigger test. And Huckabee's position on social issues important to evangelical voters won't play as well there as it has in Iowa. Then there is Michigan and Nevada. But after that is South Carolina and Florida. If Huckabee looses his footing in New Hampshire, he very well could regain it in South Carolina before the Super Tuesday primaries on February 5.

A few days ago we were talking about a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket. But will there soon be talk of a ticket with Huckabee on top?

Jerome

Polling Started in Madison County Mayor's Race

I received a call tonight from a polling company that asked questions about the Madison County Mayor's race. I was interested to learn that one of the candidates is spending money on polling. My best guess -- and after talking to a reliable source -- is that the Jimmy Harris campaign may be the one polling. My source doubts that Don McLeary's campaign has enough money to be spending on polling. The pollster even mixed in a few presidential campaign questions for good measure.

The Madison County Mayor's race is an important one and will likely be decided in the republican primary. The qualifying deadline for all candidates for the mayor's office is December 13. So far only McLeary and Harris have picked up petitions. No democrats and no independents. If that holds true, then we will know who the next mayor will be in February even though the general election isn't until August.

I haven't found anyone -- republican or democrat -- who understands Don McLeary's thought process or strategy for jumping into this race. Earlier I opined that McLeary's strategy could only be for democrats and independents to vote in the republican primary in February. After talking to some democrat friends I'm convinced that this scenario won't happen. Most local democrats are mad at McLeary for switching parties and won't lift a finger to help him. In fact, I heard from a reliable source that some democrat lawyers in town called a republican lawyer and asked what they could do to help Harris beat McLeary. Interesting.

So if the crossover vote isn't going to happen, what is McLeary's strategy? Could he be hanging his hat on name recognition only? Is he hoping that republicans who aren't hard core party members will vote in the republican presidential primary; then see his name on the ballot for mayor and pull the lever for him because they recognize his name? Surely that isn't his strategy but what else could it be?

And what will McLeary do if he looses? There is no way the leadership of the local republican party will get behind him in any other race in the future after he's challenged Jimmy Harris. If he looses this race, then I suspect McLeary will be finished in local republican politics.

Jerome

Madison County Mayor Primary Contest

An interesting development has occurred in Madison County regarding the county mayor's office. Earlier this year Jimmy Harris was appointed county mayor when the previous mayor was elected mayor of the City of Jackson. Harris became the first republican to hold the office of Madison County Mayor in the history of the county. Harris has been business partners with the grandfather of the Madison County republican party, Jimmy Wallace.

Now comes word that Don McLeary will challenge Harris in the republican primary on February 5, 2008, which coincides with the presidential primary. You remember Don McLeary, right? He ran as a democrat and defeated long time republican state senator Bobby Carter. Then he switched parties and ran as a republican in 2006, losing to the democratic challenger, Lowe Finney.

What is McLeary's strategy for running against Jimmy Harris for this seat? Harris will certainly have the backing of Jimmy Wallace (close personal friend of Fred Thompson, by the way) and the republican establishment. Harris says that Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey will be in town in December to campaign for him. So if McLeary can't expect the backing of the republican base, who does he expect will vote for him? The only possible scenario I see is that he hopes for a lot of democrats and independents to vote in the presidential primary election, pick up a republican presidential ballot rather than a democratic one and vote for him. (Word on the street is that some democrats/independents have solicited McLeary to run but no concrete proof of this has surfaced yet.) If that is the strategy, I'm not sure I follow the logic. If the democratic presidential primary is still close after Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, won't the local democrats want to vote in the democratic presidential primary? If they do, then they can't vote in the local republican mayoral primary. And with Fred Thompson on the republican presidential primary ballot, won't a lot of republicans go to the polls to vote for him -- and vote for Jimmy Harris? It would not surprise me in the least that if Fred Thompson makes a campaign stop in Jackson between now and the primary that he has Jimmy Harris on the stage with him and encourages voters to support Harris.

Certainly McLeary can't run as a democrat or independent in the August, 2008, general election because he will loose all credibility having already switched parties one time.

It is an intriguing development in the local mayor's race and it will be interesting to see how the dynamics play out. And if McLeary looses I suspect he won't find the backing of the local republican establishment in any future races.

UPDATE: After I posted on this subject, an anonymous source told me that republican state senator Bobby Carter tried to recruit Don McLeary to run as a republican in 2002 for the state senate and that Bobby Carter would have stepped aside and supported McLeary. Instead, McLeary opted to run as a democrat. So the chronology of McLeary's involvement with the local republican party since 2002 is: (1) Refused Bobby Carter's overture to run for state senate as a republican; (2) ran as a democrat for state senate and defeated an ailing Bobby Carter; (3) switched parties and ran as a republican in his re-election campaign, loosing to Lowe Finney; and (4) Is now running in republican primary for county mayor against Jimmy Harris who supported McLeary in 2006 in his state senate re-election campaign. Also, there are some who believe that unless and until McLeary actual files his petition to run in the republican primary that he may actually file to run as an independent or democrat. This theory is based on who is recruiting McLeary to run, per my source.

Jerome

Stem Cell Research

Big news yesterday regarding stem cell research. It seems that despite all the protestations from liberal groups about President Bush's veto of federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, that the same -- if not better -- cures can be obtained without the destruction of human life. National Review Online has several stories today on this subject but none more succinct than this one by Wesley J. Smith. President Bush did what was morally right and science has now vindicated that decision. This issue will certainly have an impact on the 2008 presidential election. The democratic candidates have been placating to the liberal interest groups by promising federal funding for embryonic stem cell research (a/k/a the destruction of life for scientific purposes) and will now be called on it. The debate on this topic now shifts in favor of those who are and were opposed to federal funding -- and the research in general -- of embryonic stem cell research.

Fred Thompson has consistently been opposed to embryonic stem cell research and in favor of adult stem cell research. He issued this statement yesterday. I applaud Fred for his unwavering stance on this important issue.

I haven't seen a public statement on this issue from Mike Huckabee since the news yesterday but here is a link to his website page on this issue.

This Pew Forum web page summarizes all of the candidates positions and indicates that Romney supports using embryos left over from fertility treatments but prior to 2005 broadly supported embryonic stem cell research. McCain and Giuliani both support increased federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

So Thompson and Huckabee have both consistently been opposed to embryonic stem cell research. To me that speaks volumes of both candidates. Perhaps with this new break through in science the other candidates will change their positions. Preserving human life is important and no life should be expended for the purpose of scientific research.

Jerome

Fred Thompson -- Picking The Right Time To Peak

Much has been made since Fred Thompson entered the presidential race about Fred being lazy, not having the heart for the job, disappointing, etc. But perhaps that's all part of Fred's plan. Keeping expectations low and then exceeding them would generate a tremendous amount of momentum. Before he formally entered the race, Fred was viewed as the saviour of the conservatives. Everybody was hyped up and Fred was the buzz everywhere. And then he formally entered and by everyone's account he fell flat. His poll numbers have slowly drifted down. But it may all be by design.

Fred must pick the right time to peak. If he peaks too early, then there will be others who have time to pass him. Peak to late and the momentum will have passed him by. But keep expectations low; let everyone talk about him being lazy, not wanting the job, etc.; and then pick up steam at just the right time might just be the game plan for Fred.

Larry Kudlow likes Fred. He interviewed Fred recently and wrote about the fire in Fred's belly that is beginning to show.

In the Real Clear Politics Blog this morning Tom Bevan asked whether Fred is dead or just resting. I suspect the latter. I know some of Fred's campaign people. They've got a strategy. And just when everyone has pushed Fred to the curb he'll do something to gain the momentum. And could that something be an endorsement from James Dobson? If you recall, earlier this year Dobson said that Fred Thompson was not a Christian and that he didn't have the "want to" to be president. Could that position be changing? Fred picked up the National Right to Life Committee's endorsement last week. Could other conservative Christian leaders' endorsements be far behind? I think there is a lot of wisdom in Fred reaching out to evangelical Christians.

I don't think Fred is being lazy. I think Fred is doing things the way he wants to. And I think he's lying in wait for just the right time to peak and steal the momentum away from the other candidates.

Jerome