Social Conservatives and the Republican Party

Where do social conservatives fit in the Republican Party? I ask this because many, many conservative pundits don't like Mike Huckabee or his brand of politics. The pundits take the position that the republican party has been successfull because of the coalition between social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and those to whom national security is the upmost important. The old three legs of the stool analogy.

The knock against Huckabee is that he only represents one leg of the stool and the other two legs don't like him. The pundits claim that Huckabee can't hold together the republican coalition and will loose to whoever the democratic candidate is. For example, the Club for Growth (Pat Toomey's organization) can't stand Huckabee. They claim he raised taxes as governor of Arkansas. Huckabee disputes the claim and rebuts it with this. Also, Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform seems to have taken a softer view toward Huckabee than has the Club for Growth.

The ational security wing of the party has chastised Huckabee for his "arrogant bunker mentality" statement when referring to President Bush's foreign policy. They also point out that Bush's foreign policy has been successful since we haven't been attacked again since 9/11.

Yesterday Governor Huckabee issued this statement regarding the types of judges he would appoint if president. I like his position on this. Appointing conservative judges to the federal courts is very important.

So, if Huckabee can't satisfy all parts of the republican coalition, who can? Romney seems to have shifted positions in recent years to make himself more acceptable to all legs of the stool. Giuliani is strong in national security, okay fiscally, but the social conservatives can't stand him (dispite Pat Robertson's endorsement). McCain is strong in the national security issue, strong in cutting expenses, but opposed President Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. And the social conservatives are queasy about him after what he said during the 2000 presidential campaign. Fred Thompson appeals to all three legs of the coalition but can't gain any traction. Fred said earlier this week that South Carolina is his "firewall" which means that if he doesn't when there, he'll probably get out of the race.

So of McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee, who will get the nomination? Only Huckabee is appealing to social conservatives. If one of the others gets the nomination, what does that say to social conservatives? And if Huckabee is the nominee, will the FisCons and national security elements of the party stay home on election day? It is a very interesting and trying time for the republican party. Only Fred Thompson has the ability to appeal to all branches of the coalition and if he drops out of the race we may see the coalition falling apart.

On a slightly different front, I ran across a website I didn't even know existed: God Tube. It is a Christian version of You Tube. There is a presidential poll on the front page of the website if you'd like to participate. Huckabee is, to no one's surprise, currently leading the voting.

There is also a website that has a candidate calculator that let's you see which candidate most closely aligns with your beliefs. Try it. You may find the response interesting.

And lastly, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Happily Ever After by Marilyn Griffith. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy.

UPDATE: Republicans like Hugh Hewitt and Rick Santorum don't think highly of John McCain either. Hugh Hewitt is pushing Mitt Romney -- who keeps finishing second.

Jerome

Classic Fred

Here is a link to a post on RedState about some "yearbook" questions the AP sent to all of the candidates and Fred Thompson's responses. Its classic Fred like the Michael Moore cigar video and the "no hands show" at the DMR debate last week.

Fred needs a lot of buzz over the next couple of weeks and stuff like this may get him some. You have to give it Fred, win or loose, he's certainly having fun.

Jerome

History Made in Madison County

We're watching history being made in Madison County. The filing deadline was yesterday for the county mayor's race and only Jimmy Harris and Don McLeary filed petitions. Both men are running in the republican primary in February. Jimmy Harris was appointed mayor effective July 1, 2007, making him the first republican to ever hold the office. But with Harris and McLeary running in the republican primary, and no other candidates, one of these men will be the first republican elected to hold the office of Madison County Mayor. That will be history.

Jerome

All Huckabee All The Time

All the buzz the last few days has been about Mike Huckabee . . . and virtually only Mike Huckabee. Here is a video from a Nightline segment on Huckabee. An article in the L.A. Times. Clarence Page has a piece today as well.

And there is always the bad coverage like this column by Byron York.

The knock against Huckabee -- at least from the Club for Growth crowd -- has been Huckabee's record on taxes in Arkansas. Yesterday Joe Carter addressed some of those issues head-on.

Huckabee is routinely asked religious questions like creationism v. evolution; whether Mormonism is a cult; etc. And I think his answers have been splendid like this response he gave to Wolf Blitzer at the debate and this one about Mitt Romney's faith.

What does Huckabee's rise mean to the other campaigns? It must be negatively affecting Romney and Thompson because each have attacked Huckabee recently. But who does he help? Could it be McCain? There has been talk recently about a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket. But what about McCain-Huckabee or even Huckabee-McCain?

Huckabee is kicking up a lot of dust and is currently the man with all the attention. But Dick Morris is convinced that when the dust settles it will still be Giuliani v. Clinton. We'll see.

On a different note, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Bluegrass Peril by Virginia Smith. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy of this book.

Jerome

What is Driving the Huckabee Surge?

The short answer is "social conservatives". But is there a longer answer? Mike Huckabee has little if any money and certainly doesn't have the infrastructure in Iowa that Mitt Romney has. So how is he getting his message out?

This Washington Post article implies that there is a grassroots network of "pastors, parents who home-school their children, and other Christian conservatives." It appears that there is a broad based support among social conservatives in Iowa for Huckabee. Even Tim LeHaye, co-author of the popular Left Behind series of books is making campaign appearances with Huckabee.

Huckabee has also tapped into the network of Christians that was compiled by Redeem The Vote. RTV has an impressive list of 71,000,000 names and e-mail addresses of Christian voters. 71,000,000! And even though RTV offered access to the list to all candidates -- democrat and republican alike -- only Huckabee took them up on it. And it appears to be paying off for him in Iowa.

Huckabee has recently condemned the push polling by an organization called Trust Huckabee, stating that it doesn't represent what his campaign is about. And the Weekly Standard's Dean Barnett admits that he underestimated Huckabee. Even Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform seems to have softened to Huckabee.

But can Huckabee's momentum last? Assuming he performs well in Iowa (finishes first or second), New Hampshire is a much bigger test. And Huckabee's position on social issues important to evangelical voters won't play as well there as it has in Iowa. Then there is Michigan and Nevada. But after that is South Carolina and Florida. If Huckabee looses his footing in New Hampshire, he very well could regain it in South Carolina before the Super Tuesday primaries on February 5.

A few days ago we were talking about a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket. But will there soon be talk of a ticket with Huckabee on top?

Jerome

Polling Started in Madison County Mayor's Race

I received a call tonight from a polling company that asked questions about the Madison County Mayor's race. I was interested to learn that one of the candidates is spending money on polling. My best guess -- and after talking to a reliable source -- is that the Jimmy Harris campaign may be the one polling. My source doubts that Don McLeary's campaign has enough money to be spending on polling. The pollster even mixed in a few presidential campaign questions for good measure.

The Madison County Mayor's race is an important one and will likely be decided in the republican primary. The qualifying deadline for all candidates for the mayor's office is December 13. So far only McLeary and Harris have picked up petitions. No democrats and no independents. If that holds true, then we will know who the next mayor will be in February even though the general election isn't until August.

I haven't found anyone -- republican or democrat -- who understands Don McLeary's thought process or strategy for jumping into this race. Earlier I opined that McLeary's strategy could only be for democrats and independents to vote in the republican primary in February. After talking to some democrat friends I'm convinced that this scenario won't happen. Most local democrats are mad at McLeary for switching parties and won't lift a finger to help him. In fact, I heard from a reliable source that some democrat lawyers in town called a republican lawyer and asked what they could do to help Harris beat McLeary. Interesting.

So if the crossover vote isn't going to happen, what is McLeary's strategy? Could he be hanging his hat on name recognition only? Is he hoping that republicans who aren't hard core party members will vote in the republican presidential primary; then see his name on the ballot for mayor and pull the lever for him because they recognize his name? Surely that isn't his strategy but what else could it be?

And what will McLeary do if he looses? There is no way the leadership of the local republican party will get behind him in any other race in the future after he's challenged Jimmy Harris. If he looses this race, then I suspect McLeary will be finished in local republican politics.

Jerome

Giuliani - Huckabee?

There is more talk of a potential Giuliani-Huckabee ticket. The strategy does make sense. Giuliani has the ability to carry New York -- which the democrats must desperately hang on to -- but will alienate evangelical conservatives. Social conservatives are Huckabee's strong suit. So he would easily balance the ticket with Giuliani.

Also, Joe Carter at evangelical outpost announced on his blog today that he has relocated to Little Rock, AR, to work on the Huckabee campaign team.

Jerome

Stem Cell Research

Big news yesterday regarding stem cell research. It seems that despite all the protestations from liberal groups about President Bush's veto of federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, that the same -- if not better -- cures can be obtained without the destruction of human life. National Review Online has several stories today on this subject but none more succinct than this one by Wesley J. Smith. President Bush did what was morally right and science has now vindicated that decision. This issue will certainly have an impact on the 2008 presidential election. The democratic candidates have been placating to the liberal interest groups by promising federal funding for embryonic stem cell research (a/k/a the destruction of life for scientific purposes) and will now be called on it. The debate on this topic now shifts in favor of those who are and were opposed to federal funding -- and the research in general -- of embryonic stem cell research.

Fred Thompson has consistently been opposed to embryonic stem cell research and in favor of adult stem cell research. He issued this statement yesterday. I applaud Fred for his unwavering stance on this important issue.

I haven't seen a public statement on this issue from Mike Huckabee since the news yesterday but here is a link to his website page on this issue.

This Pew Forum web page summarizes all of the candidates positions and indicates that Romney supports using embryos left over from fertility treatments but prior to 2005 broadly supported embryonic stem cell research. McCain and Giuliani both support increased federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

So Thompson and Huckabee have both consistently been opposed to embryonic stem cell research. To me that speaks volumes of both candidates. Perhaps with this new break through in science the other candidates will change their positions. Preserving human life is important and no life should be expended for the purpose of scientific research.

Jerome

Fred Thompson -- Picking The Right Time To Peak

Much has been made since Fred Thompson entered the presidential race about Fred being lazy, not having the heart for the job, disappointing, etc. But perhaps that's all part of Fred's plan. Keeping expectations low and then exceeding them would generate a tremendous amount of momentum. Before he formally entered the race, Fred was viewed as the saviour of the conservatives. Everybody was hyped up and Fred was the buzz everywhere. And then he formally entered and by everyone's account he fell flat. His poll numbers have slowly drifted down. But it may all be by design.

Fred must pick the right time to peak. If he peaks too early, then there will be others who have time to pass him. Peak to late and the momentum will have passed him by. But keep expectations low; let everyone talk about him being lazy, not wanting the job, etc.; and then pick up steam at just the right time might just be the game plan for Fred.

Larry Kudlow likes Fred. He interviewed Fred recently and wrote about the fire in Fred's belly that is beginning to show.

In the Real Clear Politics Blog this morning Tom Bevan asked whether Fred is dead or just resting. I suspect the latter. I know some of Fred's campaign people. They've got a strategy. And just when everyone has pushed Fred to the curb he'll do something to gain the momentum. And could that something be an endorsement from James Dobson? If you recall, earlier this year Dobson said that Fred Thompson was not a Christian and that he didn't have the "want to" to be president. Could that position be changing? Fred picked up the National Right to Life Committee's endorsement last week. Could other conservative Christian leaders' endorsements be far behind? I think there is a lot of wisdom in Fred reaching out to evangelical Christians.

I don't think Fred is being lazy. I think Fred is doing things the way he wants to. And I think he's lying in wait for just the right time to peak and steal the momentum away from the other candidates.

Jerome

How Divided Is The Religious Right?

There has been much made in recent days about the division among religious right leaders over endorsements for the 2008 presidential election. I've even talked about it on these pages. But is there really a division?

Here is a link to an article in the New York Sun that discussed this issue. It takes the concept of the "Evangelical Crackup" to task. I think the points are valid. During the primary season voters -- whether they are leaders or just common people like you and me -- have the only real opportunity to support and vote for who they really want to. You'll find people who will support Mike Huckabee in the primary election because he more closely mirrors their beliefs than other candidates in the republican field but will support the primary winner in the national election even if it is not Huckabee. Some may support Giuliani in the primary season even though he doesn't match their social beliefs because they feel that he is more electable in the general election than other candidates. I think either way is fine but it doesn't reveal some alleged "crackup" in the religious right as some have pronounced. I'd rather the conservative Christian leadership all support the same candidate because I believe when united the religious right will be difficult to defeat. But such uniformity is hard to achieve during the primary season.

There is also some murmuring about a Giuliani - Huckabee ticket. It is an interesting concept. Giuliani who can attract more moderate/liberal voters in blue states coupled with a socially conservative Huckabee. Giuliani would certainly put New York State in play and the democrats must win New York to accumulate enough electoral votes to win the White House. Here is another link to the Red State blog that discusses the same concept.

On a different note, I had the opportunity to go on a quail hunting trip at Tumbling Creek this week. It is a first rate hunting lodge and if you like quail hunting you should certainly check it out.

Jerome

What Will Be Impact of NRLC Endorsement?

There will be many articles and blog posts today and tomorrow about what impact the NRLC endorsement might have on the Fred Thompson campaign. David Fredoso has a pretty good piece on National Review Online where he interviews some people from Iowa. They basically say they'd like to see the reasoning behind the NRLC endorsement before they line up behind Thompson.

I pointed out in my earlier post the rationale contained in the NRLC press release, but is there something we're missing? Why did NRLC issue its endorsement now? Was it to sway voters away from Giuliani and toward Thompson? I don't think so. Giuliani is running in fourth place in Iowa and has basically written off the Iowa caucuses. So Thompson doesn't need the NRLC's endorsement to beat Giuliani in Iowa. What about Romney? Could be. Romney's pre-presidential campaign conversion on the abortion issue has pursuaded some evangelicals and pro-lifers to follow him but not many. Most still can't get past Romney's faith. I think the real reason for the NRLC endorsement and the timing of it has to do with Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has been making great strides in recent days mainly because of his showing at the Value Voters meeting in D.C. A strong showing in Iowa -- primarily among evangelicals and the pro-life community -- would give Huckabee tremendous momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. So Thompson needs to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa to keep Huckabee from taking the momentum from there and beating Thompson in South Carolina. And that's what I think is the reasoning and timing behind the NRLC endorsement. Thompson needs the bump to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa and NRLC is trying to deliver that for him.

Jerome

NRLC to Endorse Fred Thompson

Jonathan Martin at Politico has a piece up that the National Right to Life Committee will endorse Fred Thompson tomorrow. This would be a coup for Thompson and will further divide evangelical votes. Last week I posted that Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Giuliani and Don Wildmon of the American Family Assocation endorsed Mike Huckabee. Then there was the rumor of a James Dobson endorsement for Huckabee that was denied by both sides later that day, and the denials continue to be reported thru the weekend.

I've even seen some blog posts calling for James Dobson to endorse Ron Paul. I think that is highly unlikely. Pat Robertson endorsed Giuliani because he is trying to stay relevant and wants to be the kingmaker. James Dobson wants a similar role and Ron Paul is not going to be king. That's probably the same reason why Dobson hasn't endorsed Huckabee yet either. If Dobson becomes convinced that Huckabee has a chance of being relevant in the republican primary then Dobson might endorse him. Until then, Dobson will keep his cards close to his vest. And then are religious leaders like Richard Land, Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins -- the ones who want to be the next generation of evangelical kingmakers -- who will carefully decide who to endorse. Their endorsement during this election cycle might not carry the same weight as an endorsement by Dobson, Robertson et al, but they want to make sure they are inside the tent during the next election cycle.

It is both interesting and entertaining to watch all of this unfold. Hopefully the evangelical community will soon fall in behind one candidate. The division is not good for the cause.

UPDATE: Here is another article about the impending endorsement of Fred Thompson by the NRLC.

Jerome

Where Will The Religious Right Turn?

Christian Conservatives still do not have a consenus candidate for the 2008 presidential election. Many thought that Fred Thompson was going to fill the void and become the religious community's choice. But as Robert Novak points out in this article many religious leaders are already turning sour on Thompson because of public statements on abortion and gay marriage. His senate voting record was impeccably pro-life. But Thompson's statements on Tim Russert's show has some religious leaders cringing.

And then yesterday Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Guiliani. How could that happen? One of the leaders of the Moral Majority endorsing a pro-choice candidate who has been married multiple times! James Dobson has said that he will absolutely not support Giuliani and might even lead Christian voters into a third party vote if Giuliani gets the republican nomination. What is going on? Pat Robertson and James Dobson are on polar extremes regarding Giuliani's candidacy. This just underscores the divide among evangelicals.

I think the religious community must unite behind one candidate. If we're fractured then we will end up with candidate choices that are unacceptable. And we'll end up with someone in the White House that will cause further decay in our culture. I'm convinced that the next president will be in a position to nominate two, if not three, judges to the U.S. Supreme Court. Who do we want making those nominations? Certainly not Hillary Clinton.

What do religious leaders find wrong with Mike Huckabee? In the article I referenced above by Novak, he writes that some say that Huckabee is part of the "Christian Left" whatever that means. The Club For Growth gave him low marks and a couple of weeks ago Phyllis Schlafly slammed Huckabee. But Huckabee continues to build support among evangelicals.

I understand the politics of why a Giuliani candidacy appeals to some in the republican party. He probably can carry New York state. Without New York, the democrats will have a hard time winning the White House. But what traditional republican states are lost with a Giuliani candidacy? Will the New York electoral votes be enough to offset the losses? Would a Giuliani - Huckabee ticket make sense? Or Huckabee - Giuliani? What about a mixture of Thompson and Giuliani. Could some combination like these appease evangelicals and at the same time entice voters in traditional democrat states like New York? It is interesting to think about the impact of different combinations.

On a completely different front, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Deadfall by Robert Liparulo. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy.


UPDATE: After I wrote my post today, Don Wildmon of the American Family Association endorsed Mike Huckabee. If you're keeping score that's Robertson for Giuliani and Wildmon for Huckabee. Still waiting on religious leaders like James Dobson, Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins to show their cards.

Jerome