Polling Started in Madison County Mayor's Race

I received a call tonight from a polling company that asked questions about the Madison County Mayor's race. I was interested to learn that one of the candidates is spending money on polling. My best guess -- and after talking to a reliable source -- is that the Jimmy Harris campaign may be the one polling. My source doubts that Don McLeary's campaign has enough money to be spending on polling. The pollster even mixed in a few presidential campaign questions for good measure.

The Madison County Mayor's race is an important one and will likely be decided in the republican primary. The qualifying deadline for all candidates for the mayor's office is December 13. So far only McLeary and Harris have picked up petitions. No democrats and no independents. If that holds true, then we will know who the next mayor will be in February even though the general election isn't until August.

I haven't found anyone -- republican or democrat -- who understands Don McLeary's thought process or strategy for jumping into this race. Earlier I opined that McLeary's strategy could only be for democrats and independents to vote in the republican primary in February. After talking to some democrat friends I'm convinced that this scenario won't happen. Most local democrats are mad at McLeary for switching parties and won't lift a finger to help him. In fact, I heard from a reliable source that some democrat lawyers in town called a republican lawyer and asked what they could do to help Harris beat McLeary. Interesting.

So if the crossover vote isn't going to happen, what is McLeary's strategy? Could he be hanging his hat on name recognition only? Is he hoping that republicans who aren't hard core party members will vote in the republican presidential primary; then see his name on the ballot for mayor and pull the lever for him because they recognize his name? Surely that isn't his strategy but what else could it be?

And what will McLeary do if he looses? There is no way the leadership of the local republican party will get behind him in any other race in the future after he's challenged Jimmy Harris. If he looses this race, then I suspect McLeary will be finished in local republican politics.

Jerome

Auralia's Colors by Jeffrey Overstreet

This week the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Auralia's Colors by Jeffrey Overstreet. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy of this book.

Jerome

Giuliani - Huckabee?

There is more talk of a potential Giuliani-Huckabee ticket. The strategy does make sense. Giuliani has the ability to carry New York -- which the democrats must desperately hang on to -- but will alienate evangelical conservatives. Social conservatives are Huckabee's strong suit. So he would easily balance the ticket with Giuliani.

Also, Joe Carter at evangelical outpost announced on his blog today that he has relocated to Little Rock, AR, to work on the Huckabee campaign team.

Jerome

Madison County Mayor Primary Contest

An interesting development has occurred in Madison County regarding the county mayor's office. Earlier this year Jimmy Harris was appointed county mayor when the previous mayor was elected mayor of the City of Jackson. Harris became the first republican to hold the office of Madison County Mayor in the history of the county. Harris has been business partners with the grandfather of the Madison County republican party, Jimmy Wallace.

Now comes word that Don McLeary will challenge Harris in the republican primary on February 5, 2008, which coincides with the presidential primary. You remember Don McLeary, right? He ran as a democrat and defeated long time republican state senator Bobby Carter. Then he switched parties and ran as a republican in 2006, losing to the democratic challenger, Lowe Finney.

What is McLeary's strategy for running against Jimmy Harris for this seat? Harris will certainly have the backing of Jimmy Wallace (close personal friend of Fred Thompson, by the way) and the republican establishment. Harris says that Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey will be in town in December to campaign for him. So if McLeary can't expect the backing of the republican base, who does he expect will vote for him? The only possible scenario I see is that he hopes for a lot of democrats and independents to vote in the presidential primary election, pick up a republican presidential ballot rather than a democratic one and vote for him. (Word on the street is that some democrats/independents have solicited McLeary to run but no concrete proof of this has surfaced yet.) If that is the strategy, I'm not sure I follow the logic. If the democratic presidential primary is still close after Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, won't the local democrats want to vote in the democratic presidential primary? If they do, then they can't vote in the local republican mayoral primary. And with Fred Thompson on the republican presidential primary ballot, won't a lot of republicans go to the polls to vote for him -- and vote for Jimmy Harris? It would not surprise me in the least that if Fred Thompson makes a campaign stop in Jackson between now and the primary that he has Jimmy Harris on the stage with him and encourages voters to support Harris.

Certainly McLeary can't run as a democrat or independent in the August, 2008, general election because he will loose all credibility having already switched parties one time.

It is an intriguing development in the local mayor's race and it will be interesting to see how the dynamics play out. And if McLeary looses I suspect he won't find the backing of the local republican establishment in any future races.

UPDATE: After I posted on this subject, an anonymous source told me that republican state senator Bobby Carter tried to recruit Don McLeary to run as a republican in 2002 for the state senate and that Bobby Carter would have stepped aside and supported McLeary. Instead, McLeary opted to run as a democrat. So the chronology of McLeary's involvement with the local republican party since 2002 is: (1) Refused Bobby Carter's overture to run for state senate as a republican; (2) ran as a democrat for state senate and defeated an ailing Bobby Carter; (3) switched parties and ran as a republican in his re-election campaign, loosing to Lowe Finney; and (4) Is now running in republican primary for county mayor against Jimmy Harris who supported McLeary in 2006 in his state senate re-election campaign. Also, there are some who believe that unless and until McLeary actual files his petition to run in the republican primary that he may actually file to run as an independent or democrat. This theory is based on who is recruiting McLeary to run, per my source.

Jerome

Stem Cell Research

Big news yesterday regarding stem cell research. It seems that despite all the protestations from liberal groups about President Bush's veto of federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, that the same -- if not better -- cures can be obtained without the destruction of human life. National Review Online has several stories today on this subject but none more succinct than this one by Wesley J. Smith. President Bush did what was morally right and science has now vindicated that decision. This issue will certainly have an impact on the 2008 presidential election. The democratic candidates have been placating to the liberal interest groups by promising federal funding for embryonic stem cell research (a/k/a the destruction of life for scientific purposes) and will now be called on it. The debate on this topic now shifts in favor of those who are and were opposed to federal funding -- and the research in general -- of embryonic stem cell research.

Fred Thompson has consistently been opposed to embryonic stem cell research and in favor of adult stem cell research. He issued this statement yesterday. I applaud Fred for his unwavering stance on this important issue.

I haven't seen a public statement on this issue from Mike Huckabee since the news yesterday but here is a link to his website page on this issue.

This Pew Forum web page summarizes all of the candidates positions and indicates that Romney supports using embryos left over from fertility treatments but prior to 2005 broadly supported embryonic stem cell research. McCain and Giuliani both support increased federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

So Thompson and Huckabee have both consistently been opposed to embryonic stem cell research. To me that speaks volumes of both candidates. Perhaps with this new break through in science the other candidates will change their positions. Preserving human life is important and no life should be expended for the purpose of scientific research.

Jerome

Fred Thompson -- Picking The Right Time To Peak

Much has been made since Fred Thompson entered the presidential race about Fred being lazy, not having the heart for the job, disappointing, etc. But perhaps that's all part of Fred's plan. Keeping expectations low and then exceeding them would generate a tremendous amount of momentum. Before he formally entered the race, Fred was viewed as the saviour of the conservatives. Everybody was hyped up and Fred was the buzz everywhere. And then he formally entered and by everyone's account he fell flat. His poll numbers have slowly drifted down. But it may all be by design.

Fred must pick the right time to peak. If he peaks too early, then there will be others who have time to pass him. Peak to late and the momentum will have passed him by. But keep expectations low; let everyone talk about him being lazy, not wanting the job, etc.; and then pick up steam at just the right time might just be the game plan for Fred.

Larry Kudlow likes Fred. He interviewed Fred recently and wrote about the fire in Fred's belly that is beginning to show.

In the Real Clear Politics Blog this morning Tom Bevan asked whether Fred is dead or just resting. I suspect the latter. I know some of Fred's campaign people. They've got a strategy. And just when everyone has pushed Fred to the curb he'll do something to gain the momentum. And could that something be an endorsement from James Dobson? If you recall, earlier this year Dobson said that Fred Thompson was not a Christian and that he didn't have the "want to" to be president. Could that position be changing? Fred picked up the National Right to Life Committee's endorsement last week. Could other conservative Christian leaders' endorsements be far behind? I think there is a lot of wisdom in Fred reaching out to evangelical Christians.

I don't think Fred is being lazy. I think Fred is doing things the way he wants to. And I think he's lying in wait for just the right time to peak and steal the momentum away from the other candidates.

Jerome

Mike Huckabee & Chuck Norris

Mike Huckabee has a new television ad out that stars Chuck Norris. It is brilliant in its simplicity. There are a lot of Walker, Texas Ranger fans out there who might vote for Mike Huckabee because of Chuck Norris. But the real brilliance in the ad is that it has created a buzz about Mike Huckabee on the internet. It is similar to Fred Thompson's admonishment to Michael Moore while chomping on a Cuban cigar. Thompson's YouTube clip was one of the most played videos for a few days after its release. Huckabee's will be too. At this point in the campaign it is all about name recognition and getting media exposure. Huckabee will win that battle for the next few days with this ad.

Jerome

How Divided Is The Religious Right?

There has been much made in recent days about the division among religious right leaders over endorsements for the 2008 presidential election. I've even talked about it on these pages. But is there really a division?

Here is a link to an article in the New York Sun that discussed this issue. It takes the concept of the "Evangelical Crackup" to task. I think the points are valid. During the primary season voters -- whether they are leaders or just common people like you and me -- have the only real opportunity to support and vote for who they really want to. You'll find people who will support Mike Huckabee in the primary election because he more closely mirrors their beliefs than other candidates in the republican field but will support the primary winner in the national election even if it is not Huckabee. Some may support Giuliani in the primary season even though he doesn't match their social beliefs because they feel that he is more electable in the general election than other candidates. I think either way is fine but it doesn't reveal some alleged "crackup" in the religious right as some have pronounced. I'd rather the conservative Christian leadership all support the same candidate because I believe when united the religious right will be difficult to defeat. But such uniformity is hard to achieve during the primary season.

There is also some murmuring about a Giuliani - Huckabee ticket. It is an interesting concept. Giuliani who can attract more moderate/liberal voters in blue states coupled with a socially conservative Huckabee. Giuliani would certainly put New York State in play and the democrats must win New York to accumulate enough electoral votes to win the White House. Here is another link to the Red State blog that discusses the same concept.

On a different note, I had the opportunity to go on a quail hunting trip at Tumbling Creek this week. It is a first rate hunting lodge and if you like quail hunting you should certainly check it out.

Jerome

Try Dying by James Scott Bell

This week the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Try Dying by James Scott Bell. Bell is one of the true leaders in Christian fiction and has crafted an intriguing story. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy.

Jerome

What Will Be Impact of NRLC Endorsement?

There will be many articles and blog posts today and tomorrow about what impact the NRLC endorsement might have on the Fred Thompson campaign. David Fredoso has a pretty good piece on National Review Online where he interviews some people from Iowa. They basically say they'd like to see the reasoning behind the NRLC endorsement before they line up behind Thompson.

I pointed out in my earlier post the rationale contained in the NRLC press release, but is there something we're missing? Why did NRLC issue its endorsement now? Was it to sway voters away from Giuliani and toward Thompson? I don't think so. Giuliani is running in fourth place in Iowa and has basically written off the Iowa caucuses. So Thompson doesn't need the NRLC's endorsement to beat Giuliani in Iowa. What about Romney? Could be. Romney's pre-presidential campaign conversion on the abortion issue has pursuaded some evangelicals and pro-lifers to follow him but not many. Most still can't get past Romney's faith. I think the real reason for the NRLC endorsement and the timing of it has to do with Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has been making great strides in recent days mainly because of his showing at the Value Voters meeting in D.C. A strong showing in Iowa -- primarily among evangelicals and the pro-life community -- would give Huckabee tremendous momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. So Thompson needs to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa to keep Huckabee from taking the momentum from there and beating Thompson in South Carolina. And that's what I think is the reasoning and timing behind the NRLC endorsement. Thompson needs the bump to finish ahead of Huckabee in Iowa and NRLC is trying to deliver that for him.

Jerome

NRLC Endorses Fred Thompson

It's official. The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Fred Thompson today. There was also this statement by Dr. Franz, NRLC President and this one by Karen Cross, NRL PAC Director. Fred Thompson issued this response.

What I find interesting in the press release from NRLC is statement: "In making its endorsement, National Right to Life considered the positions of candidates on the life issues, their records on life issues and their ability to win." (emphasis mine). That's why Mike Huckabee didn't get the endorsement. NRLC doesn't believe he has a chance of winning. Huckabee's pro-life position is more in line with NRLC's than Thompson's. Thompson doesn't support a constitutional ban on abortions and prefers to leave the issue up to the individual states. Huckabee favors a constitutional ban and I believe NRLC does too. It was the electability test more than anything that tilted the NRLC endorsement toward Thompson.

We'll see how the endorsement plays with the evangelical crowd. I believe many evangelicals prefer to have a constitutional ban on abortion. If abortion is wrong then it is wrong in every state. But a constitutional ban is unlikely to ever occur. The more realitic scenario is a reversal of Roe V. Wade and a return of the abortion issue to the individual states, which is what Thompson advocates. If this were to occur then we would have some states that would ban abortions and others that won't.

The NRLC endorsement won't unite all evangelicals behind Fred Thompson but it is a large organization that can make a difference in the primaries.

Jerome

NRLC to Endorse Fred Thompson

Jonathan Martin at Politico has a piece up that the National Right to Life Committee will endorse Fred Thompson tomorrow. This would be a coup for Thompson and will further divide evangelical votes. Last week I posted that Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Giuliani and Don Wildmon of the American Family Assocation endorsed Mike Huckabee. Then there was the rumor of a James Dobson endorsement for Huckabee that was denied by both sides later that day, and the denials continue to be reported thru the weekend.

I've even seen some blog posts calling for James Dobson to endorse Ron Paul. I think that is highly unlikely. Pat Robertson endorsed Giuliani because he is trying to stay relevant and wants to be the kingmaker. James Dobson wants a similar role and Ron Paul is not going to be king. That's probably the same reason why Dobson hasn't endorsed Huckabee yet either. If Dobson becomes convinced that Huckabee has a chance of being relevant in the republican primary then Dobson might endorse him. Until then, Dobson will keep his cards close to his vest. And then are religious leaders like Richard Land, Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins -- the ones who want to be the next generation of evangelical kingmakers -- who will carefully decide who to endorse. Their endorsement during this election cycle might not carry the same weight as an endorsement by Dobson, Robertson et al, but they want to make sure they are inside the tent during the next election cycle.

It is both interesting and entertaining to watch all of this unfold. Hopefully the evangelical community will soon fall in behind one candidate. The division is not good for the cause.

UPDATE: Here is another article about the impending endorsement of Fred Thompson by the NRLC.

Jerome

Dobson to Endorse Huckabee?

Rumors swirled all day about a potential endorsement of Mike Huckabee by James Dobson. Such an endorsement would be huge for the Huckabee campaign. It all started with this piece on the American Spectator website. (I've had trouble connecting to the site this evening so keep checking back if you have problems too). The article was later updated when Dobson's people said no endorsement was imminent. Then late today the Huckabee camp issued this statement.

The interesting thing about the denials from both sides is that neither said Dobson wasn't going to endorse Huckabee. Only that an endorsement isn't imminent. Dobson may still endorse Huckabee eventually. Huckabee is one of the few (if not the only) candidate that Dobson hasn't declared unacceptable. If Wildmon and Dobson both support Huckabee, many other evangelical leaders would likely follow suit. It might be enough to get Huckabee in the top tier of the republican candidates and it could lead to a nomination or at least a V.P. slot.

Jerome

Where Will The Religious Right Turn?

Christian Conservatives still do not have a consenus candidate for the 2008 presidential election. Many thought that Fred Thompson was going to fill the void and become the religious community's choice. But as Robert Novak points out in this article many religious leaders are already turning sour on Thompson because of public statements on abortion and gay marriage. His senate voting record was impeccably pro-life. But Thompson's statements on Tim Russert's show has some religious leaders cringing.

And then yesterday Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Guiliani. How could that happen? One of the leaders of the Moral Majority endorsing a pro-choice candidate who has been married multiple times! James Dobson has said that he will absolutely not support Giuliani and might even lead Christian voters into a third party vote if Giuliani gets the republican nomination. What is going on? Pat Robertson and James Dobson are on polar extremes regarding Giuliani's candidacy. This just underscores the divide among evangelicals.

I think the religious community must unite behind one candidate. If we're fractured then we will end up with candidate choices that are unacceptable. And we'll end up with someone in the White House that will cause further decay in our culture. I'm convinced that the next president will be in a position to nominate two, if not three, judges to the U.S. Supreme Court. Who do we want making those nominations? Certainly not Hillary Clinton.

What do religious leaders find wrong with Mike Huckabee? In the article I referenced above by Novak, he writes that some say that Huckabee is part of the "Christian Left" whatever that means. The Club For Growth gave him low marks and a couple of weeks ago Phyllis Schlafly slammed Huckabee. But Huckabee continues to build support among evangelicals.

I understand the politics of why a Giuliani candidacy appeals to some in the republican party. He probably can carry New York state. Without New York, the democrats will have a hard time winning the White House. But what traditional republican states are lost with a Giuliani candidacy? Will the New York electoral votes be enough to offset the losses? Would a Giuliani - Huckabee ticket make sense? Or Huckabee - Giuliani? What about a mixture of Thompson and Giuliani. Could some combination like these appease evangelicals and at the same time entice voters in traditional democrat states like New York? It is interesting to think about the impact of different combinations.

On a completely different front, the Christian Fiction Blog Alliance is introducing Deadfall by Robert Liparulo. I hope you get a chance to pick up a copy.


UPDATE: After I wrote my post today, Don Wildmon of the American Family Association endorsed Mike Huckabee. If you're keeping score that's Robertson for Giuliani and Wildmon for Huckabee. Still waiting on religious leaders like James Dobson, Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins to show their cards.

Jerome

Mike Huckabee Moving Up

Mike Huckabee continues to move up not only in political polls but also on Technorati. Technorati maintains most popular lists and "Mike Huckabee" is the 7th most popular search phrase. Click on Huckabee's name and you can see numerous blog entries about Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee is now polling at 7.7% in the Real Clear Politics Average and his best showing is 12% in the Rasmussen poll. Back in the summer, Huckabee was polling at 2% or 3%. Guiliani still leads with Thompson second, McCain, Romney and Huckabee in fifth place. The Iowa caucuses are only about 2 months away and a strong showing there could really propel Huckabee into the top tier.

The media (even international media) continues to report that Fred Thompson's campaign is uninspiring. It will be interesting to see if Thompson's campaign gains some traction in the next few weeks ahead of the Iowa caucuses. I hope he does.

Jerome